Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
